Quantifying
the Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: Review of Methods And
Results
Richard Katz, Institute for Study of Society and Environment,
National Centres for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
It
is About Dialogue, Not About Monologue! It is About Knowledge, Not About
Uncertainty! It is About the User, Not About the Weather
Jacques
Descurieux and Kent Johnson, Meteorological Service of Canada
Modular
Information Aggregation with Combinatorial Prediction Markets
Robin
Hanson, Department of Economics, George Mason University
A
Comparison of Models of Aggregation of Probabilistic Forecasts
David
Budescu and Hsiu-Ting Yu, Department of Psychology, University of Illinois
Using
Judgment to Combine Forecasts from Different Sources
Nigel Harvey,
Department of Psychology, University College London
Weighing and
Using Advice from Forecasters Differing in Calibration and
Discrimination
Thomas S. Wallsten and Yaron Shlomi, Department of
Psychology, University of Maryland
Uncertainty
in Weather Forecasting
Ken Mylne, Met Office
Should
Meteorology Meet Social Science? Constraints as Viewed from the U.S. Atmospheric
Science Perspective
Jim Hansen, U.S. Naval Research Laboratory,
Monterey
Some
Considerations for Modelling and Simulating Long Memory
Processes
James Davidson, School of Business and Economics,
University of Exeter
Understanding
and Using Weather Forecast Uncertainty Information
Susan Joslyn,
Department of Psychology, University of Washington
On
the Effect of Rare Events
Ido Erev, William Davidson Faculty of
Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion - Israel Institute of Technology
Avenues and
Barriers to Quantitative Integration of Weather Forecasts in Decision
Making
Eva Regnier, Institute Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey,
California
Severe Local
Storms with a Slight Chance of Error: Some Error Statistical Reflections from
Philosophy and Econometrics
Deborah Mayo, Department of Economics,
Virginia Tech
Aris Spanos, Department of Economics, Virginia Tech
Probabilistic,
but Probably not Probabilities: The Role of Scientific Simulation Modelling in
Real-World Decision Support
Lenny Smith, Centre for the Analysis of
Time Series, London School of Economics
Quantifying
the Quality of Forecasts and Forecasting Systems
Chris Ferro, School
of Engineering, Computer Science and Mathematics, University of Exeter
Ambiguity and
Extreme Risk
David Kelsey, School of Business and Economics,
University of Exeter
Prediction
Markets for Weather and Climate
Anthony Kwasnica, Smeal College of
Business, Pennsylvania State University
Decision
making by Austin, Texas, residents in hypothetical tornado
scenarios
David Schultz, Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Department
of Physical Sciences, University of Helsinki and Finnish Meteorological
Institute
Managing
Flash Floods: Risk Perception from a Cultural Perspective
Ashley
Coles, Department of Geography and Regional Development, University of Arizona
Credible
Verbal Presentations of Uncertain Weather Forecasts?
Matthew Leitch,
MLA Limited
On
Eliciting Beliefs in Strategic Games
Thomas R. Palfrey, Division of
Humanities and Social Science, California Institute of Technology
Stephanie
W. Wang, Department of Economics, Princeton University
How Can We
Design and Operate a New Weather Observation System to Reduce the Negative
Socio-Economic Impact of Severe Weather?
Russell Tessier and Brenda
Philips, Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of
Massachusetts, Amherst
Testing
Understanding of Forecast Uncertainty in the Experimental Economics
Laboratory
Todd R. Kaplan, School of Business and Economics,
University of Exeter
Mark S. Roulston, Met Office
An
Expert Prediction Market for the North Atlantic Oscillation
Index
Anthony Kwasnica and Gary Bolton, Smeal College of Business,
Pennsylvania State University
Andrew Kleit, Dept. of Meteorology,
Pennsylvania State University
Mark S. Roulston, Met Office
Current
Trends in Weather Derivatives Trading and Valuation
Vladimir
Vladimirov and Stanley Gyoshev, Xfi Centre for Finance and Investment,
University of Exeter