Talks

Quantifying the Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: Review of Methods And Results
Richard Katz, Institute for Study of Society and Environment, National Centres for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

It is About Dialogue, Not About Monologue! It is About Knowledge, Not About Uncertainty! It is About the User, Not About the Weather
Jacques Descurieux and Kent Johnson, Meteorological Service of Canada

Modular Information Aggregation with Combinatorial Prediction Markets
Robin Hanson, Department of Economics, George Mason University

A Comparison of Models of Aggregation of Probabilistic Forecasts
David Budescu and Hsiu-Ting Yu, Department of Psychology, University of Illinois

Using Judgment to Combine Forecasts from Different Sources
Nigel Harvey, Department of Psychology, University College London

Weighing and Using Advice from Forecasters Differing in Calibration and Discrimination
Thomas S. Wallsten and Yaron Shlomi, Department of Psychology, University of Maryland

Uncertainty in Weather Forecasting
Ken Mylne, Met Office

Should Meteorology Meet Social Science? Constraints as Viewed from the U.S. Atmospheric Science Perspective
Jim Hansen, U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey

Some Considerations for Modelling and Simulating Long Memory Processes
James Davidson, School of Business and Economics, University of Exeter

Understanding and Using Weather Forecast Uncertainty Information
Susan Joslyn, Department of Psychology, University of Washington

On the Effect of Rare Events
Ido Erev, William Davidson Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion - Israel Institute of Technology

Avenues and Barriers to Quantitative Integration of Weather Forecasts in Decision Making
Eva Regnier, Institute Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California

Severe Local Storms with a Slight Chance of Error: Some Error Statistical Reflections from Philosophy and Econometrics
Deborah Mayo, Department of Economics, Virginia Tech
Aris Spanos, Department of Economics, Virginia Tech

Probabilistic, but Probably not Probabilities: The Role of Scientific Simulation Modelling in Real-World Decision Support
Lenny Smith, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics

Quantifying the Quality of Forecasts and Forecasting Systems
Chris Ferro, School of Engineering, Computer Science and Mathematics, University of Exeter

Ambiguity and Extreme Risk
David Kelsey, School of Business and Economics, University of Exeter

Prediction Markets for Weather and Climate
Anthony Kwasnica, Smeal College of Business, Pennsylvania State University

Posters

Decision making by Austin, Texas, residents in hypothetical tornado scenarios
David Schultz, Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Department of Physical Sciences, University of Helsinki and Finnish Meteorological Institute

Managing Flash Floods: Risk Perception from a Cultural Perspective
Ashley Coles, Department of Geography and Regional Development, University of Arizona

Credible Verbal Presentations of Uncertain Weather Forecasts?
Matthew Leitch, MLA Limited

On Eliciting Beliefs in Strategic Games
Thomas R. Palfrey, Division of Humanities and Social Science, California Institute of Technology
Stephanie W. Wang, Department of Economics, Princeton University

How Can We Design and Operate a New Weather Observation System to Reduce the Negative Socio-Economic Impact of Severe Weather?
Russell Tessier and Brenda Philips, Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Massachusetts, Amherst

Testing Understanding of Forecast Uncertainty in the Experimental Economics Laboratory
Todd R. Kaplan, School of Business and Economics, University of Exeter
Mark S. Roulston, Met Office

An Expert Prediction Market for the North Atlantic Oscillation Index
Anthony Kwasnica and Gary Bolton, Smeal College of Business, Pennsylvania State University
Andrew Kleit, Dept. of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University
Mark S. Roulston, Met Office

Current Trends in Weather Derivatives Trading and Valuation
Vladimir Vladimirov and Stanley Gyoshev, Xfi Centre for Finance and Investment, University of Exeter