all 300
open data OrdProbitData.XLS
data(format=xls,org=obs) /
table
****************************************************
* Independent variables

*COUNTRY
set INDO = %if(COUNTRY.eq.1.,1.,0.)
set PHIL = %if(COUNTRY.eq.2.,1.,0.)
*Set THAI = %if(COUNTRY.eq.3.,1.,0.)     ;* INTERCEPT

*SECTOR (3 SECTORS)
* 1 (garments), 2 (textiles), 9 (garments & textiles),
* 3 (electronics), 5 (autoparts), 6 (chemicals),
* 4(food),

set TEXTILE = %if(SECTOR.eq.1..OR.SECTOR.eq.2..OR.SECTOR.eq.9.,1.,0.)
set INDUSTR = %if(SECTOR.eq.3..OR.SECTOR.eq.5..OR.SECTOR.eq.6.,1.,0.)
*Set FOOD    = %if(SECTOR.eq.4.,1.,0.) ;*  THIS GOES TO THE INTERCEPT (TO AVOID DUMMY TRAP)

*FDI
set FOREIGN = %if(FDI.eq.1.,1.,0.)

* Crisis and recovery.
set CRISIS = (0.5*(CAP96+CAP97A)-CAP97B)
*set RECOVERY = CAP98A-CAP97B


set Y3 = %if(WPROP.EQ.7.,1.,0.)                      ; * 1->HIGH REDUCTION         (26%+ LOSS)
set Y2 = %if(WPROP.EQ.6..OR.WPROP.EQ.5.,1.,0.)       ; * 1->REDUCTION              (5% TO 25% LOSS)
set Y1 = %if(WPROP.EQ.4.,1.,0.)                      ; * 1->NO CHANGE              (0 TO +- 4%)
set Y0 = 1.0-Y1-Y2-Y3                                ; * 1->HIGH RECRUITMENT       (5%+ GAIN)

****************************************************

NONLIN(PARMSET=FIRST)   INTERCEPT BINDO BPHIL BIND BFDI MU1 MU2
NONLIN(PARMSET=SECOND)  ACRISIS

COMP INTERCEPT=1.6,BINDO=BPHIL=0.,BTEX=0.,BIND=0.14,BFDI=-0.1, mu1=1.5,MU2=2.2
COMP ACRISIS=0.02

FRML EQ  =  INTERCEPT + BINDO*INDO  + BPHIL*PHIL   + BTEX*TEXTILE + BIND * INDUSTR + BFDI*FOREIGN + ACRISIS*CRISIS

FRML LOGL = Y0*LOG(%CDF(-EQ))+Y1*LOG(%CDF(MU1-EQ)-%CDF(-EQ))+Y2*LOG(%CDF(MU2-EQ)-%CDF(MU1-EQ)) +Y3*LOG(1.-%CDF(MU2-EQ))

MAXIMIZE(PARMSET=FIRST+SECOND,noTRACE,METHOD=SIMPLEX,ITERS=5,NOPRINT) LOGL 1 *
MAXIMIZE(PARMSET=FIRST+SECOND,NOTRACE,METHOD=Bfgs,ROBUST,RECURSIVE,ITERS=300,print) LOGL 1 *


****************************************
* COMPUTING PROBABILITIES for restricted model   (WITH VALUES)
DISPLAY 'INDO PHIL INDUSTR FOREIGN CRISIS     P0             P1            P2      P3'
STATS(NOPRINT,FRACTILES) CRISIS ; COMP AVCRISIS=%MAXIMUM ;*MEAN

*
DO JINDO=0,1;DO JPHIL=0,1;DO JINDUSTR=0,1;DO JFOREIGN=0,1
COMP  JQ  =  INTERCEPT + BINDO*JINDO  + BPHIL*JPHIL   + BIND * JINDUSTR + BFDI*JFOREIGN + ACRISIS*AVCRISIS
COMP P0 = (%CDF(-JQ)),P1=(%CDF(MU1-JQ)-%CDF(-JQ)),P2=(%CDF(MU2-JQ)-%CDF(MU1-JQ)),P3=(1.-%CDF(MU2-JQ))

DISPLAY JINDO ';' JPHIL ';' JINDUSTR ';' JFOREIGN  ';'  P0 ';' P1 ';' P2  ';' P3

ENDO;ENDO;ENDO;ENDO